{
  "process_id": "CM-15",
  "policy_version": "synthetic-counterfactual-v1",
  "event_id": "cm-15-counterfactual-v1",
  "input": {
    "decision_cutoff": "2026-11-06T15:00:00+00:00",
    "loan_sale_gain_cents": 212500,
    "operating_cost_cents": 80000,
    "actual_combined_contribution_cents": 197500,
    "notional_cents": 40000000,
    "open_price_bps": 10100,
    "risk_limit_cents_per_bp": 1000,
    "candidates": [
      {
        "id": "earlier_unwind",
        "quote_observed_at": "2026-11-06T14:59:59+00:00",
        "close_price_bps": 10060,
        "fees_cents": 10000,
        "carry_cents": 15000,
        "executable": true,
        "residual_dv01_cents_per_bp": 3500
      },
      {
        "id": "matched_risk",
        "quote_observed_at": "2026-11-06T14:59:59+00:00",
        "close_price_bps": 10080,
        "fees_cents": 10000,
        "carry_cents": 20000,
        "executable": true,
        "residual_dv01_cents_per_bp": 500
      },
      {
        "id": "late_revision",
        "quote_observed_at": "2026-11-07T09:00:00+00:00",
        "close_price_bps": 10050,
        "fees_cents": 10000,
        "carry_cents": 15000,
        "executable": true,
        "residual_dv01_cents_per_bp": 500
      }
    ]
  },
  "expected": {
    "label": "hypothetical_fixed_population_and_cost_assumptions",
    "candidates": [
      {
        "candidate": "earlier_unwind",
        "status": "infeasible_risk_limit",
        "hypothetical_contribution_cents": 267500,
        "difference_from_actual_cents": 70000
      },
      {
        "candidate": "matched_risk",
        "status": "hypothetical_feasible",
        "hypothetical_contribution_cents": 182500,
        "difference_from_actual_cents": -15000
      },
      {
        "candidate": "late_revision",
        "status": "excluded_future_information"
      }
    ],
    "realized_incremental_gain_claimed_cents": 0,
    "external_actions": 0
  },
  "changes": [
    {
      "name": "Executable evidence missing",
      "path": [
        "candidates",
        1,
        "executable"
      ],
      "value": false,
      "expected": {
        "label": "hypothetical_fixed_population_and_cost_assumptions",
        "candidates": [
          {
            "candidate": "earlier_unwind",
            "status": "infeasible_risk_limit",
            "hypothetical_contribution_cents": 267500,
            "difference_from_actual_cents": 70000
          },
          {
            "candidate": "matched_risk",
            "status": "excluded_no_executable_source"
          },
          {
            "candidate": "late_revision",
            "status": "excluded_future_information"
          }
        ],
        "realized_incremental_gain_claimed_cents": 0,
        "external_actions": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Different explicitly supplied risk constraint",
      "path": [
        "risk_limit_cents_per_bp"
      ],
      "value": 5000,
      "expected": {
        "label": "hypothetical_fixed_population_and_cost_assumptions",
        "candidates": [
          {
            "candidate": "earlier_unwind",
            "status": "hypothetical_feasible",
            "hypothetical_contribution_cents": 267500,
            "difference_from_actual_cents": 70000
          },
          {
            "candidate": "matched_risk",
            "status": "hypothetical_feasible",
            "hypothetical_contribution_cents": 182500,
            "difference_from_actual_cents": -15000
          },
          {
            "candidate": "late_revision",
            "status": "excluded_future_information"
          }
        ],
        "realized_incremental_gain_claimed_cents": 0,
        "external_actions": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Cutoff without a timezone is invalid",
      "path": [
        "decision_cutoff"
      ],
      "value": "2026-11-06T15:00:00",
      "expected": {
        "status": "hold",
        "reason": "invalid_input",
        "external_actions": 0
      }
    }
  ]
}